Post
Topic
Board Economics
Re: Trump and the pressing rate cut
by
Fiatless
on 28/08/2025, 03:54:19 UTC
Weakness by what measure?
Unemployment is at full potential and I know many European leaders who would get one limb chopped off to have a weak labour market like yours.
Surely 25 bps are on the cards for September, I think market prices 80% probability for that.
Although it's a slight weakness, it is also significant. Nonfarm payrolls for July rose by only 73,000, below the market estimate of 110,000. The July job reports also came with the revision of May and June reports, which showed that only 19,000 jobs were added in these months, but 291,000 jobs were reported. The unemployment rate moved from 4.1% to 4.2% in July.

Based on this information the probability of the Feds cutting interest rates moved from 40% to 80%.

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/us-jobs-report-july-downward-revisions-worse-than-thought-rcna222442