May I interject in your conversation and ask why do you believe that the Federal Reserve has currently NO reason to cute rates? Is it because Inflation isn't stable under 2% yet?
There's a narrative going on that says 2% is an arbitrary number, and that it doesn't actually matter if Jerome Powell cuts now.
Plus because the Federal Reserve is usually late in cutting rates because of lagging data, doesn't that mean Trump might be right to force Powell to cut rates "NOW"? The unemployment rate could surge anytime in my opinion.
FED has a dual mandate: inflation AND Jobs.
Job situation is on the strong side, with unemployment close to historical law, even if labour force participation is on the secular downtrend.
Inflation is instead running hot, with tariffs still not impacting headline numbers, with probably huge impact on the coming months.
Not the right moment to cut rates.