Actually I look at this El Salvador bet and see a lot of hype. They're at $700 million and need another $300 million to hit a billion by 2025. Yeah Bitcoin's price could do all the work for them and Bukele's tweets are more like a showman's trick to influence the market. But I'm still not touching that "yes" bet. The odds aren't good enough and there are too many variables like the IMF and wild price swings and when everyone's betting on the same thing it usually means the smart money has already cashed out.

I'd be looking to bet "no" hoping for a surprise price drop or a change in their strategy because the real value is in betting against the crowd sometimes.