The lazy read is: Madrid and Dortmund big names, everything else is manageable. Wrong way round. Madrid away? Not fatal by the Swiss model, write it off. Dortmund at home? Winnable. It turns the season on Villarreal, Sporting and Bodo - 7 to 9 points there is the critical path. Last year, they were exposed by PSV who ran 154.7 km to Juve 152.6, and 25 to 15 shots respectively. Now look: Monaco PPDA ~7.5, Sporting's 3-4-3 press, Villarreal's 4-4-2 counter block. It is as though UEFA intentionally attracted Juventus all the tactical archetypes that have historically worked against them. And do not forget the seeding rule: by getting into 9-16 and choking the playoff they effectively give their seeding and home leg advantage to another. That is humiliation on paper. Yes, Juventus should make playoffs, but "should" and "will" have been two worlds in Juventus over the last five years