Not sure if this should be under bitcoin topic or here lol. But there have been platforms,
namely kalshi's prediction market and polymarket, have listed similar bets about El Salvador's bitcoin holdings. Both platforms have listed that El Salvador will have a total of $1 Billion worth of bitcoin by the end of 2025. The odds are pretty interesting. Now Bukele has found out about this and seems to be hinting on social media. But do you genuinely believe El Salvador can magically get to a billion worth of bitcoin? They currently have over $700 Million. They would only need $300 million more. To me it seems a lot. To a country like El Salvador, that isn't easy money either. Would you bet on this?
Polymarket may be setting themselves up for some big losses with this type of bets that can easily be manipulated. Assuming the odd for El Salvador meeting that target is higher than the odd of them not meeting that target, the government of El Salvador can just speed of things and meet the target after betting heavily on these platforms through their friends and allies. On the other hand, if the odd of not meeting the target is higher, the government might just decide to keep all their Bitcoin accumulation to January 2026 and then bet heavily on failing to meet the target. I know either of these will not happen but listing events that can be manipulated is not a good one for me.