Paris Saint-Germain lost only 1 match out of 5 matches and 4 matches won by that team. The performance of Toulouse football team is not excellent because they won only 2 matches out of last 5 matches and they have very less chances to win this match.
I agree with you that Toulouse has small chance to win the match against PSG, but it seems like you don't have good knowledge of how to make a good analysis. Now it's a new season & there are only 2 matches played, usually the teams come into the new season with new spirit, so we can't take analysis from the last 5 matches, unless it's H2H. If we look at it from H2H, OFC PSG is on a different level, because from their last 10 meetings, PSG was able to get 8 wins & 1 draw, while Toulouse only managed 1 win.