I’m pretty active in football betting and would like to hear your thoughts on which soccer leagues you find the most predictable and the most unpredictable when it comes to betting.
There are so many leagues out there, and some seem to have patterns that make them easier to predict.
For example, in my experience Turkish Super Lig and Portuguese Primeira Liga are a bit more predictable compared to let's say Premier League or La Liga, which often feel more volatile.
So, I’m asking community:
1)Which leagues do you find the most predictable in terms of match outcomes?
2)And which leagues are the most unpredictable, where you can’t always rely on teams' form or stats?
I'd question your belief that the majority league is more volatile than lesser known leagues, at least when it comes to the odds that are available to bet on. The wisdom of the crowd and the most data analysis will be happening on the Premier League, as there is a lot more money at stake if the bookmaker gets it wrong. People are much more likely to bet on the Premier league because it's more well known, has higher profile players and is generally more trusted. When you think about things like match fixing, it is much more likely to happen in lower leagues where the salary is less and there is more room for collusion. Have you actually done any statistical analysis to compare the outcomes or just basing this on a hunch?