Re: We are at peak BTC price.

You know what? He is not wrong.

The last 3 cycle tops that we had. They had one thing in common. I had friends and family buy crypto who never knew what it was. Then usually a month later, it topped. Each of the 3 cycles I noticed this. Maybe it was a coincidence.

But you need to understand that it’s not only the crypto markets that are stretched. So is the stock market. Look at Nvidia today at earnings. It beat estimates but stock dumped anyways after 5% because it hits of a bubble.

People buying BTC suddenly despite the fact that they were never exposed to crypto in the first place can be a signal of the bullish top.
But we've got such thing going since the first day of ETF, literally people who never buy BTC is buying BTC through ETF so I think that kind of reason become invalid these days.
In fact, current rally largely motivated by ETF inflow.

The market can be very manipulative and sometimes too using previous market reactions work for those that understand how price moves. If op was trying to relate to what happens in the previous years when people were buying Bitcoin without knowing that it was a Bitcoin bill trap that lured many investors to buy Bitcoin and after sometime they realized that the price of Bitcoin has started falling.
The market structure can change anytime without our awareness which is why we need to be smart and vigilant so we don't miss the most important information.

The market can be very tricky and misleading and often catches people off guard people get influenced by hype trends or past performance without really understanding the forces at play and many have been trapped buying Bitcoin or other assets when the price is surging only to see it crash shortly after historical price movements give some hints but they are never reliable signals and relying solely on them is dangerous being smart and vigilant is crucial constantly observing market structure liquidity flows exchange activity and news events helps reduce the risk of being blindsided knowing how different market participants react in various situations allows for better decisions patience and disciplined risk management are key because acting on impulse or emotion is what leads to major losses. Sudden moves happen anytime and being flexible enough to adapt quickly is essential the market is influenced by whales institutional money and retail sentiment all of which can change rapidly understanding these dynamics helps make more informed decisions and prepares one to act strategically.

Studying patterns support and resistance levels and how price reacts to certain triggers gives an edge but even that is not foolproof a good trader always expects the unexpected and plans accordingly learning from past mistakes and constantly analyzing both successes and failures builds experience and awareness which reduces risk over time, the key is combining observation research and emotional control while never assuming the market will behave the same way it did before staying alert to sudden changes rumors policy news or large volume movements allows for timely adjustments and smarter choices over time this kind of awareness and preparation can separate those who survive the market from those who get trapped in losses making careful strategic moves while understanding that uncertainty is constant can improve results and protect capital in the long run.