The Western world has been exploiting the resources of other nations for centuries. Lastly, it was China that handled all the industrial processing. Now the Western world points fingers at China because its CO2 emissions and pollution are unbearable. Too lazy.
I am wondering how Trump's plan to recover some industrial processing power will fit into this rhetoric, but it's a long shot, versus the incredible dynamics of his positions.
Trump can sell this issue for domestic political gain (attracting working class and industrial votes), but in terms of execution, the US still lags far behind China in the rare earth mineral supply chain. His rhetoric is strong, but the global structure still favors China, which has already established a dirty industry with high socio-environmental costs.
Possible scenarios for Trump's future actions are:
- Simply a symbol of resistance to Chinese dominance. (Rhetoric) The emphasis remains on America First, creating the impression of protecting American workers. However, in practice, rare earth mineral processing remains difficult due to high costs in the US, strict environmental regulations, and the global industry's dependence on low Chinese prices. Ultimately, the US may only develop a small refining capacity but still send concentrate to Asia for processing.
- Coercing the domestic rare earth mineral industry with protectionism through import tariffs, subsidies, and military contracts. Civilian industries (electric cars, green energy) are also encouraged by the availability of domestic supplies, but costs remain high, making American finished products less competitive than Chinese ones. The US has seen limited growth in the military and strategic high-tech sectors, but it cannot completely replace China's dominance in the global market.
- Trump's Energy Doctrine: Return to Fossils, Ignore Green.
Trump prefers shale oil and gas as the basis of national energy, making rare earth minerals a lesser priority. Trump likely views green energy and electric cars as a global elite agenda that is detrimental to the US. In this scenario, the US mines only a limited amount and remains dependent on global supply chains (including China). This means rare earths become merely a political campaign issue, not a pillar of industrialization.
China is already far advanced in developing a rare earth mineral ecosystem from upstream to downstream, despite its high pollution levels. The US under Trump tends to be caught between political ambition and cost realities.If Trump focuses on military protectionism (scenario 2), the US could gain a new foothold. But if it falls into scenarios 1 or 3, industrial recovery will be merely rhetoric for his voter base, without overturning China's dominance.
Do you mean that Ukraine had no way to encourage USA but to offer its rare metals map in exchange for logistic and military support? I think you have a point here. All the facts valid what you just said. Those metals are not economically considered accessible so neither Trump or Putin looks really interested on them. While Zelensky has no other offer to give mainly to US because he already garanted the continious support from Europe for geostrategic reasons.
The fact is that Ukraine does not have rare earth mineral reserves as promised by Zelensky (the amount is small and if the map is updated the location of rare earth minerals is not in Ukraine but in the territory controlled by Russia). This made Trump angry and felt that US involvement in the Ukrainian war was not profitable, because Ukraine could not pay the costs of war support that had been incurred by the US.