Re: Before Bitcoin hits 1 000 000 usd, it falls below 10 000 usd
⭐ Merited by d5000 (4)
First reason: Bitcoin price is now clearly overvalued relative the level determined by its public acceptance rate (if 100% acceptance rate means ca one million usd, then nowadays acceptance rate is not clearly 10% but rather something around 1%).
Interesting theory, although a bit underdeveloped perhaps (a bit of a poor man's Total Addressable Market analysis). But fortunately this one can be debunked quite easily with "hard facts".There are several studies that imply that the public "Bitcoin acceptance" is even higher than 10% in many important countries, including the US, and about 5-10% in many countries in Europe, Africa and Latin America.
- Crypto.com: 337 million Bitcoin users for late 2024 (there are no newer figures)
- Triple A: Their last report is from 2023, but even back then there were already >10% crypto users in big countries like the US, Brazil, South Africa and the Philippines.
Of course their stats may be inexact but I think the general order of magnitude should be correct.
And of course: We may have a population of 8.x billion. But that includes children, the elderly, and people in rural areas who will probably never need Bitcoin. A 100% penetration would be thus in my opinion more close to 2-3 billion: one main user per family.
Our marketcap also means that every family on Earth owns, on average, about $1000 in Bitcoin.
(if we say there are 2 billion families in the world, then the a 2T market cap means exactly that). Yes, the median is probably still 0 but it nevertheless is remarkable.if 1billion people had at least 1000 worth of btc .
btc would be worth well over 300k.
at this point in time there are around 56 to 65 million btc addresses with money in them.
so 2,000,000,000,000/65,000,000= $30,769.23 is the current average in an address
hard to believe that is true, but pretty sure that is the right average.
as per this thread.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5254914.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5254914.msg65753481#msg65753481
so there are only 56 million funded addresses. holding around 20 million coins.
myself I have at least 10 addresses with smaller amounts of coins.
my point is if only 56 million addresses have a part of a coin or more. and many have 2 or my addresses.
only 56/2=28 million or less own some coin.
or almost no real penetration into the world.
Lets say 5 billion are kids are monster poor and 2 billion are fuck that shit.
this leaves 1 billion that may buy some and only 28 million have do so.
at the absolute most 56 million currently have some and that is certainly way to high as lots of us have multiple addresses .
so 28,000,000/1,000,000,000= only 2.8% own it if the owners all have 2 addresses
or 56,000,000/1,000,000,000=only 5.6% own it if the owners all have 1 address
if your guess of 2 billion is better than my guess of 1 billion
1.4% to 2.8% own it.
Frankly I think under the 1.4% may be true.
At based on my funded addresses (8 or so). which means 1 million a coin is likely.