If winning this award is based on trophy wise then I think Dembele will definitely win the award because the dude has more trophy than Lamine Yamal but if it not rated by trophy wise then Lamine Yamal will win the award because what Lamine Yamal is playing at his age, no player, no legendary or hero has done it at this particular age that yamal is now and so it is an encouraging one and giving him the award will also motivate and boost his zeal and passion in football but the thing is if Dembele doesn't win this award he can never win it again but Lamine Yamal still has time and it is possible he can win in the future.
For as long as I can remember, the Ballon d'Or goes to the player who is awarded it because he has won almost all the competitions, including the UCL, and who has scored the most goals. So, in view of this, they are now diverting it to biases that make no sense For example, I never agreed when they gave it to Messi and not Lewandowski, when they gave it to Rodri and not Vini, those things are disappointing. Don't be surprised that they give it to the immature child Yamal.