Interesting theory, although a bit underdeveloped perhaps (a bit of a poor man's Total Addressable Market analysis). But fortunately this one can be debunked quite easily with "hard facts".

There are several studies that imply that the public "Bitcoin acceptance" is even higher than 10% in many important countries, including the US, and about 5-10% in many countries in Europe, Africa and Latin America.

- Crypto.com: 337 million Bitcoin users for late 2024 (there are no newer figures)
- Triple A: Their last report is from 2023, but even back then there were already >10% crypto users in big countries like the US, Brazil, South Africa and the Philippines.

Of course their stats may be inexact but I think the general order of magnitude should be correct.

And of course: We may have a population of 8.x billion. But that includes children, the elderly, and people in rural areas who will probably never need Bitcoin. A 100% penetration would be thus in my opinion more close to 2-3 billion: one main user per family.

Our marketcap also means that every family on Earth owns, on average, about $1000 in Bitcoin. (if we say there are 2 billion families in the world, then the a 2T market cap means exactly that). Yes, the median is probably still 0 but it nevertheless is remarkable.