Post
Topic
Board Economics
Re: Economic risks of Integrating Bitcoin into a Nation's Official Reserve
by
BattleDog
on 04/09/2025, 11:30:51 UTC
Treat this like reserve engineering, not ideology. A nation can hold BTC, but only if the rules are boring and explicit.

Bitcoin adds Sanction-resistant bearer reserve with 24/7 settlement and no custodian risk if you run your own keys. And diversifier with upside optionality. Correlates to global liquidity cycles, not to any one country.

Main risks would be price, -80% drawdowns happen. You must survive that without selling. Liquidity, depth is thinner than FX or USTs; government-sized clips will move the market if you market buy/sell.


How a sober treasury would do it:

Cap BTC at a small strategic slice (think low single digits of reserves). Do not use it for short-term liquidity coverage. DCA over long windows, OTC/RFQ with multiple counterparties, TWAP/VWAP execution, and silent settlement. Consider sovereign mining to earn flow without market impact.
Pre-arranged lines with several OTC desks and miners; know your 1-day and 5-day sale capacity under stress. Never rely on a single venue or stablecoin rail.

If you must meet fiat liabilities on schedule, pair holdings with listed futures for hedging during narrow windows. Unwind when obligations are met.
Native multi-sig, keys split across jurisdictions and agencies, HSMs, quorum policies, air-gapped signing, disaster recovery drills, and audited procedures. No lending, no rehypothecation, no yield games.

Bitcoin could help as a strategic reserve alongside gold and FX, not instead of them or as an energy policy lever, monetize stranded power via mining to accumulate without FX outflows.
A settlement option for specific bilateral trades where the counterparty prefers BTC would also be an option.