First of all this isn’t an original idea, I read something somewhere and will definitely go pull the source. The general theme was that as paper bitcoin increase(etfs,dats etc) there will be less circulating bitcoin and thus transactions fees will be impacted negatively. It sounds plausible, I’m a bit stuck on the a holder is a holder no matter where they are self custody or third party, but do you think this will have cause transactions to drop off over time as more adoption happens on the paper side?
Today, over 70% of Bitcoin monetary transactions occur daily on the Bitcoin Lightning , while about 30% happen on-chain. Of those on-chain transactions, 10–15% are pure spam, such as inscriptions, ordinals, and other useless junk.
ETFs will have a positive impact because accumulation and hodling by institutions push up the exchange rate As the Bitcoin exchange rate rises against the dollar and other fiat currencies, people become aware that Bitcoin will not disappear or go to zero. More and more people will want to adopt such money. Everyone prefers money whose purchasing power increases whether you are a fruit seller at the market, a mechanic, a restaurant owner, a lawyer, or a dentist everyone will want money that gains in purchasing power.People will start accepting Bitcoin for their goods and services. They will learn how to run their own nodes and open their own Lightning Network (LN) payment channels. As time goes on, more and more people will use Bitcoin, run their own nodes, and manage their LN channels, opening and closing them on-chain. In 30 years, having your own Bitcoin node and LN node with your own LN channels will be as common as most people having a POS device in their stores today.