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Nah, there is no evidence that governors are being forced to resign through blackmail. With effect from Aug 8, Adriana Kugler resigned voluntarily, the majority of the coverage attributes this to professional reasons rather than coercion.
Blackmailers don't do it in the open, it's political. However, those who can read between the lines will surely suspect, at least, this is obvious. Many headlines captured it as "strange," while other says it's "usual." And Trump, as we know, likes to have his way one way or another, and even the harassments of the members is enough to know that something are going on underground.
Look at it this way: If Trump doesn't have an interest there, I am sure that Adriana Kugler will still be active.
At the moment a cut is weighted 98% by the market.
25 bps is 100%.
There is quite big size of forecast going for more dovish, but as someone told in the Fed is not going to impact with so little effort.
The rate cut is imminent, with 89% forecast last week. Perhaps it has grown higher, and indeed, I read a news which quoted "nearly 100%" forecast on the cut. These are big!
The 25bps is the popular prediction, and my main focus is on how the market will react in case of a higher or lower than rexpected release. I expect a tsunami-like market reaction in this case. While 25bps will have a little effect, holding the rate will be disappointing and might send the USD lower.