At the moment a cut is weighted 98% by the market.
25 bps is 100%.
There is quite big size of forecast going for more dovish, but as someone told in the Fed is not going to impact with so little effort.
25 bps is 100%.
There is quite big size of forecast going for more dovish, but as someone told in the Fed is not going to impact with so little effort.
With the non-farm payrolls report just released and coming in much lower than expected, it shows that the US job market is clearly weakening. With this signal, the prediction of the Fed cutting interest rates on September 17 on CME has reached 100%. Of these, 88% predict that the Fed will cut 25 basis points, while 12% believe that the Fed will cut 50 basis points.
It can be said that a Fed rate cut is almost certain, but let's wait and see if there are any surprises. It would be a big boost for the market if they suddenly cut 50 basis points instead of 25
.