Another refinery was hit today.
Ukraine is clearly trying - and actually being successful - in constraining the supplies of gasoline and jet fuel. While diesel is still there, planes do not fly without Jet fuel and military planes require even a finer quality one.
I think Ukraine may be able to stall Ruzzian aviation to some degree and reduce the impact of the expected offensive.
https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/putins-petrostate-faces-a-kamikaze-petrol-crisis-101756981612772.htmlPutin’s petrostate faces a kamikaze petrol crisis
Drivers queue as Ukraine’s drones take out 20% of refining capacity
Why the new Ukranian missile does actually change things:
- Large warhead.
- More range than a Tomahawk
- Ground launched.
I'm afraid it can't be game changer. In years of war Ukraine has developped lot of cool things to depend less on Western supply. Besides Flamingo, there is also Neptune or Trembita missiles. But main problem is production. Ukraine need lot of such missiles to change things, but they can produce very little of it. This is why we don't hear often about successful attacks using their own made missiles. It's hard to make big production when your military factories is one of main targets of Russia.
From what I see Ukraine is doing big production of cheap attack drones or Bohdana howitzers, but when it come to missiles, its' more complicated question.
It does in my view - not like giving an immediate super-advantage, but giving a fully new strategic option that adds to the general strategy. Neptune is expensive and more limited, Trembita has a very limited range (150 km??). Nothing like the avobe 1000 km of flamingos. Also the launching system is pretty much any truck.
Flamingo is an "IKEA" missile that can be produced with cheap parts and does not require an advanced manufacturing process of any kind. I would not be surprised if produced somewhere in Poland or westernmost Ukraine.
Even if Ukraine has 10 or 12 of these, it means that Ruzzia would have just too many "hard" targets to protect. Ukraine could choose to destroy any factory - such as the ones repairing the planes or anything else.