I’ve been thinking about this for a while whenever I check the lines in different sportsbooks. We all see odds move up and down before a game, but the real question is, are those numbers actually showing the true probability of the outcome, or are they just being adjusted so the bookmaker balances the action on both sides?
For example, if a team is priced at 1.90, does that really mean they have a 52.6% chance of winning? Or is it more about the book trying to spread money evenly so they lock in a profit no matter the result?
for odds converter, I'm using this i found in the internet
https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/odds-converter.htmlBookies use algorithms to determine the odds but they can be wrong occasionally and that's how smart gamblers take advantage of their mistakes. An experienced gambler can spot these mistakes right away.
For example if barcelona was playing against levante and barcelona's odds were 2.00 and levante's was 3, you would bet on barcelona without even blinking wouldn't you? (assuming that barcelona team don't have a big issue going on)
It is because you can spot the mistake in the picture I am painting. Not all mistakes are that obvious but there are many out there.
For top sportsbooks I think that these kind of mistakes are becoming less frequent, and there may come a day when they no longer exist at all.
However, I think that this is of greater importance to the casino itself than individual players, because the impact for them of a single match subject to so many variables that could change the most likely outcome may not be very big, but in the case of the house, they can pay dearly mistakes like these.