I’ve been thinking about this for a while whenever I check the lines in different sportsbooks. We all see odds move up and down before a game, but the real question is, are those numbers actually showing the true probability of the outcome, or are they just being adjusted so the bookmaker balances the action on both sides?
Bookmakers are there to make profit so they just end up adjusting the lines based on where the money is. It is not completely depending on reality but there has got to be some truth to is since how the gamblers form an opinion depends on what has happened in the past.