I’ve been thinking about this for a while whenever I check the lines in different sportsbooks. We all see odds move up and down before a game, but the real question is, are those numbers actually showing the true probability of the outcome, or are they just being adjusted so the bookmaker balances the action on both sides?
For example, if a team is priced at 1.90, does that really mean they have a 52.6% chance of winning? Or is it more about the book trying to spread money evenly so they lock in a profit no matter the result?
for odds converter, I'm using this i found in the internet
https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/odds-converter.htmlFirstly, the odds converter you used does not take into account the bookmakers' margin. In fact, the probability of an event quoted as 1.9 is approximately 50%, not 52%.
Secondly, I read in different sources that bookmakers generally guess the outcomes quite accurately. Around 2% accuracy. But this is a controversial issue since the result strongly depends on the methodology. In general, if we consider that the bookmakers' margin is in the range of 4-8% and they are always in the black, we can assume that their forecasts are better than those of the average bettor.