I’ve been thinking about this for a while whenever I check the lines in different sportsbooks. We all see odds move up and down before a game, but the real question is, are those numbers actually showing the true probability of the outcome, or are they just being adjusted so the bookmaker balances the action on both sides?
For example, if a team is priced at 1.90, does that really mean they have a 52.6% chance of winning? Or is it more about the book trying to spread money evenly so they lock in a profit no matter the result?
From the best of my knowledge, odds don't perfectly reflect reality, we have seen many times that the favorite of a match ended up losing while the other team whom was believed to be the ones that will lose ended up winning..
I think casinos try as much as possible to balance both sides of the odds so that no matter the team that ended up winning the match, they(the casino) will be in profit.
Without the casino employing this measure, we discover that gamblers will end up betting on one side, the side they believe have a better chance of wining the match, in the end, if that side ended up winning, the casino will have alot of debt to pay leaving them with very little to no profit.
This is what I think..