The problem with this guy is that he mixes a fact that would be more of a fundamental analysis, like this one, with his technical analysis. I would bet quite heavily that bitcoin will not fall to $50,000 as he predicts in one of his scenarios.
Anyone want to bet?
I don't know when the bear market will come but I believe it will happen in the future and once it happens bitcoin will be dumped and easily drop to 50k$-40k$.
And that is what he actually saying here, and just like the every else who has been in the market for so long. This is going to be the likely scenario. In 2026, the price will go down hard to $50k.
Many would argue that since the government and Wall Street institutions are already in the market, they would never let the price of bitcoin drop that much because it would not be in their interest. But in my opinion, they are in the market for profit and there is no regulation to prevent them from dumping the market. So even if the 4 year cycle is broken and once the bear season comes, bitcoin will still be dumped as usual.
That we really don't know as this is the first time that we have seen institution in the market, with their ETF and billions of dollars of investment. Can they control the market to not go down? Are the market going to be different now? Will there be supercycle as others have predicted?
So it's very hard to really predict because the market has change and open up in this bull market.
We even have a new all time high prior to the halving itself, that's why many thinks that this cycle could set a new pattern.