I’ve been thinking about this for a while whenever I check the lines in different sportsbooks. We all see odds move up and down before a game, but the real question is, are those numbers actually showing the true probability of the outcome, or are they just being adjusted so the bookmaker balances the action on both sides?
What causes the changes in odds before the start of a match is due to the stakes from gamblers on that particular event and also as a result new developments before the match kicks off. If a match is nearing starting time and people are placing bets on that match the odds will be fluctuating because people will be choosing different options for that match and the higher people choose a particular option that is how the odds will be reducing. I have had several encounter with odd changes especially when am about to stake the bet and a warning comes up about an odd change for one of my accumulated events, what i do is exclude that particular match because if i leave that match in my bet it must go against my prediction in most cases.