Looks like this is just for fun because you estimate that bitcoin will be trading at almost $1m in 10 years, which would be very difficult to achieve and I'll tell you why. In the last 10 years, so from 2015 -2025 bitcoin's market cap grew from 3.5 B to 2.2 T USD. That would have to go up 10x in the next 10 years. meaning we'd need an inflow of additional 20 T USD!
To give you a perspective, when ETFs entered the scene in 2024, over the course of another ~20 months, the market cap grew by 1.2T, so we'd need to almost double that and not per 20 months, but every 12 months to reach 20T in 10 years. Where do you expect this money to come from?
Are we going to have a never ending bull season from now on with inflows raising exponentially?
What do you expect happens when we go into a bull season ending in $300k in the next 2 years? Because the way I see it we're going to have a reverse FOMO into a bear market because everybody will want to sell some.
Your math seems to count only for a constant growth over the next 10 years which isn't going to happen.
But why do you think that this will never happen and we achieved growth only because of the ETF? Perhaps the ETF helped the growth, there is always something that helps growth, and a very important point is the moral growth of the price, few people believed five years ago that bitcoin could reach 100,000, but it reached this mark and fixed itself at it, with 1 million it will also be very difficult, there are a lot of calculations where bitcoin reaches 1 million much earlier than 2036, but I do not believe in them because this is the same moral growth mark and it will also be very difficult to reach, but bitcoin will reach it or cease to exist, just think for yourself how bitcoin will work without constant growth, bitcoin cannot exist without mining and mining cannot exist without constant growth of bitcoin.