I’ve been thinking about this for a while whenever I check the lines in different sportsbooks. We all see odds move up and down before a game, but the real question is, are those numbers actually showing the true probability of the outcome, or are they just being adjusted so the bookmaker balances the action on both sides?
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Definitely odds are not always a reflect of reality and the actual probability a team or a person has to win a match. Keep in mind odds are highly influenced by the way people bet and the volume of money which is placed in favor or a side or the opposite one. The market is the driving favor which models all the woods we see on the market, in the case there is a millionaire bet being placed in favor of one of the sides, then obviously the odds are going to decrease in all betting platforms.
There could be some adjusting being done by bookies so they will only have profit from the volume of bets, but I don't have any information whether that is a common practice or not, I doubt it, though, bookies already get their slice regardless of the results and outcomes, thanks to their fee.