Topic Description:
This topic is dedicated to calculations and discussions on the strategy of holding Bitcoin to ensure long-term passive income.
Goal:
To calculate the amount of Bitcoin required so that, over time, one can start selling portions of it and receive a stable income of at least $100,000 per year for a minimum of 30 years.
Within this discussion, it is suggested to consider:
The current Bitcoin price and its projected changes.
The amount of Bitcoin needed to generate a passive income of at least $100,000 per year.
The timeframe after which it is feasible to begin selling in order to ensure income for 30 years or more.
The optimal gradual selling strategy to reduce risks and tax liabilities.
The impact of inflation and cryptocurrency market fluctuations on the holding and selling strategy.
All calculations will be based on current market data, historical trends, and realistic Bitcoin growth scenarios.
Below is a table showing, if we start with 1 Bitcoin, from which year we could begin selling parts of Bitcoin to receive $100,000 per year for 30 years:
Bitcoin Sales Dynamics and Remaining Balance (30 Years of Income)
Year Price (USD) Sale (BTC) Remaining BTC
2036 960,000 0.1042 0.8958
2037 1,120,000 0.0893 0.8065
2038 1,280,000 0.0781 0.7284
2039 1,440,000 0.0694 0.6590
2040 1,920,000 0.0521 0.6069
2041 2,240,000 0.0446 0.5623
2042 2,560,000 0.0391 0.5232
2043 2,880,000 0.0347 0.4885
2044 3,840,000 0.0260 0.4625
2045 4,480,000 0.0223 0.4402
2046 5,120,000 0.0195 0.4207
2047 5,760,000 0.0174 0.4033
2048 7,680,000 0.0130 0.3903
2049 8,960,000 0.0112 0.3791
2050 10,240,000 0.0098 0.3693
2051 11,520,000 0.0087 0.3606
2052 15,360,000 0.0065 0.3541
2053 17,280,000 0.0058 0.3483
2054 19,200,000 0.0052 0.3431
2055 21,120,000 0.0047 0.3384
2056 30,720,000 0.0033 0.3351
2057 33,280,000 0.0030 0.3321
2058 35,840,000 0.0028 0.3293
2059 38,400,000 0.0026 0.3267
2060 61,440,000 0.0016 0.3251
2061 66,560,000 0.0015 0.3236
2062 71,680,000 0.0014 0.3222
2063 76,800,000 0.0013 0.3209
2064 122,880,000 0.0008 0.3201
2065 133,120,000 0.0008 0.3193
The sales are distributed in such a way that the remaining Bitcoin continues to appreciate in value, while each year’s income is ≥ $100,000, and 1 BTC is sufficient for ≥30 years of income.
If we take 0.1 BTC as an example, we would only be able to start selling Bitcoin to earn $100,000 per year starting in 2056.
Using these figures, we can roughly estimate the potential passive income for different amounts of Bitcoin and how many years we would need to wait before starting to receive a stable income.
It’s worth noting that this isn’t the easiest calculation, and getting an exact number is quite challenging. Bitcoin will remain in your portfolio over time. If we begin selling from 2036 at $100,000 per year, in roughly 10 years we could safely increase annual withdrawals to $200,000. Approximately every decade after that, it should be possible to gradually raise the amount of Bitcoin we spend in dollar terms, keeping a stable and growing passive income.
That’s a solid piece of work, and I like how you’ve mapped out a selling schedule to achieve stable income. The main thing to keep in mind, though, is that Bitcoin isn’t a passive-income asset in the traditional sense. Unlike dividends or rental income, it doesn’t “pay” you automatically. The only way to generate cash flow is by selling portions of your holdings, or by taking the additional risk of putting them into yield products.
Your model assumes steady appreciation in price, which is logical if adoption continues, but Bitcoin tends to move in cycles. Historically, there have been sharp bull runs followed by deep bear markets. Anyone planning to live off Bitcoin has to be careful not to sell too much during the bear years when prices are low, otherwise they shrink their stack faster than expected.
A more resilient approach could be to combine Bitcoin with a buffer in stablecoins or fiat. In down years, you rely on that buffer and avoid selling Bitcoin at a discount. In bull years, you sell small portions at higher prices and maybe even set aside extra reserves for the future.
Taxes are another factor. Depending on jurisdiction, regular selling might trigger capital gains obligations. That reduces the net passive income, so it’s something that can’t be ignored in long-term planning.
So yes, Bitcoin can absolutely be used as a kind of long-term “self-made pension,” but flexibility is key. Instead of a rigid 30 year selling calendar, it’s safer to adjust withdrawals around halving cycles, market conditions, and personal needs. If Bitcoin reaches the valuations in your table, even owning fractions of a coin will be enough to secure financial independence, but the strategy has to be dynamic, not fixed.