Alternative and more realistic calculation:
Situation 2025: You have 1 BTC and want to have, each 4 years, the same amount in USD. The rest will be sold or spent as "passive income".
Price evolution:
Let's say that we hit a 140,000 ATH this year and have then new ATHs each 4 years with 70% of the previous cycle profit.
- 2025: 140,000 (100% profit compared to previous ATH of 69,000$)
- 2029 240.000 $ (70% previous ATH - 0.7 * 100%)
- 2033 360.000 $ (49% previous ATH - 0.7 * 70%)
- 2037 480.000 $ (34% previous ATH - 0.7 * 49%)
- 2041 600.000 $ (24% previous ATH - 0.7 * 34%)
Bitcoin has its block subsidy changes and halves by every 210,000 Bitcoin blocks and if people have knowledge about Bitcoin controlled supply and the future supply as well as market cycles related to Bitcoin block subsidy halves, they will time the market better.
It's definitely impossible to predict price and time the market correctly but knowing about Bitcoin controlled supply and market cycle history can help.
Bitcoin controlled supply.Bitcoin halving dates and history.