I am surely not going to proclaim that I know the answers to whatever questions that I throw out there since frequently there is going to be personal tailoring that helps each of us to figure out our own balances in regards to both our bitcoin investment and also any of our implementations of our cashflow management practices.  I have made plenty of my own mistakes over the years, and sure sometimes we might not realize the impact of our mistakes for several years down the road, yet we cannot go back and change our priorities, or even expect that there is are perfect answers, since most likely there are balances and getting matters directionally correct while we might tweak our courses of action from time to time.


I don't know where I can help any further.  I stated my concerns about how you are looking at the matter, and I don't really believe in trying to trade something like bitcoin, since tend to suggest that guys focus on accumulation through buying until they get enough or more than enough which it can take while to get to such status of having enough or more than enough.

I also consider selling to not be a good accumulation strategy, even though I would consider that if you thinking that the market and the price are getting overheated, then you might want to slow down in buying and then just let your cash build up during those times for the price to dip, even though you would run the risk of getting it wrong and the price goes up rather than down, yet I would consider that the problem of having to buy at a higher price to be less of a problem than having had sold an then the price goes up, especially if you already know that your goal is to accumulate more bitcoin.. .


I still don't claim to understand your squigglies.. and yeah, the price could break out in either direction.. yet if we are still in a bull market, it is likely to break out to the upside, and sometimes we don't know when the bull market is over until it is 3-6 months after it is already over.. at least that has been my own personal experience in past cycles, and I would not be surprised if I end up in a similar situation this time around, even though my own behavior is largely holding through the ups and downs, except I had considered that I reached overaccumulation status in late 2014.. even though I kept accumulating through 2015 and 2016.

It does seem that persons who reach overaccumulation status are in a better position to start to sell some of their bitcoin, but yeah, frequently mistakes can be made in regards to when overaccumulation status is reached. 

My own ways of assessing over accumulation status has changed through the years, so I am not sure if there is necessarily one way of figuring out what your own numbers might be, since your over accumulation status numbers would be tailored to your financial and psychological circumstances.


I figured that you had more ins and outs rather than just buying and sitting on the BTC that you bought, yet still overall there are several of us who likely made mistakes along the way, and may well have had ended up with fewer bitcoin due to some of those mistakes or even not considering that we were making any mistakes.


Sometimes a job can be convenient, yet at a certain point the numbers might not add up or there might be inconveniences in maintaining the job that may contribute to a parting of the ways.  Sometimes also the medical insurance or some other perks of employment might keep some folks from wanting to give up their job... yet at the same time, I think that my earlier numbers that I showed through the sustainable withdrawals tool also show that if you reach your income level or even multiples higher than your current income number that you can start to provide to yourself in a sustainable (perpetual) way, then you might well consider that you have enough of a financial cushion to either completely cut your tie to your regular job or perhaps to attempt to cut back your hours.


If you have sufficiently investigated into the "business" then using 1/3 of your BTC may well be reasonable diversification, yet at the same time, don't get distracted by nominal value - especially since the dollar has been rapidly debasing in value - especially even more rapidly since March 2020.. but still I get your point that the income could be sufficiently high and a different way of getting money that allows you to potentially quit your job.. It also seems that some folks will purposefully go into other kinds of income streams so that they are not totally dependent on bitcoin, yet it also potentially raises fewer red flags if you have money coming from other sources (besides bitcoin), in the event that you might start to sustainably cash out from whatever your remaining bitcoin balance might be... that is if you need to generate any other income from your bitcoin..  I will concede that sometimes there is value in letting your bitcoin continue to ride and then to draw income from other places (other than your bitcoin), which seems, in part, to be what you are doing in regards to putting 1/3-ish of your bitcoin stash into a likely inferior asset/investment..


Yep I sold my BCH (aka bcash) around that price too (on average).. I had some sell below 0.1 and then I had others sell in the upper 0.2s.