AKA, "When Dogs Fly"
This is mainly for my own amusement and to serve as a reason for learning extra tidbits about teams and games to try to get some kind of betting edge here and there.
So basically, for each week of the season (starting week 2 obviously), I will pick 1 matchup that I think has the best chance of causing the biggest upset.
For example, this week I am choosing the Jacksonville Jaguars to not only cover a -3.5 spread but to win the game outright, as well. There are definitely bigger upsets that could happen in Week 2 (Browns beating the Ravens comes to mind), but I think this is the one that has the biggest chance of actually pulling it off.
Why do I think this? Here's some reasons why the Jagscould will beat the Bengals on Sunday:
Counterpoint intangible: Burrow is 20-5 while playing at home, and 2-0 against the Jags.
Given this is a Jacksonville home game and coming off a win where they showcased a lot of their strengths, as opposed to Bengals who barely beat the Browns, I'm feeling that Jags are not only going to cover a spread of +3.5 but also win the game outright, which makes the Jags my first official Upset of the Week.
Disagree with anything, or have something to add to this analysis? Feel free to let me know! If you think a bigger upset may happen, make the case for it here! We will keep honest track to see how my (and anyone else's) predicitons are going. Some kinda special merit award for those who pick the biggest upset each week. How does that sound?
This is mainly for my own amusement and to serve as a reason for learning extra tidbits about teams and games to try to get some kind of betting edge here and there.
So basically, for each week of the season (starting week 2 obviously), I will pick 1 matchup that I think has the best chance of causing the biggest upset.
For example, this week I am choosing the Jacksonville Jaguars to not only cover a -3.5 spread but to win the game outright, as well. There are definitely bigger upsets that could happen in Week 2 (Browns beating the Ravens comes to mind), but I think this is the one that has the biggest chance of actually pulling it off.
Why do I think this? Here's some reasons why the Jags
- Bengals beat the Browns - not a high-powered team by any expectations - by just 1 point last week despite the line being -4.5 pts. On the other hand, the Jags easily stomped all over the Panthers, winning 26-10.
- Trevor Lawrence's performance last game suggests he is on the path to make up for several inefficiences that plagued his team last year. Joe Burrow put up decent numbers against Cleveland but was sacked 3 times, suggesting his 0 line isn't very strong.
- Burrows has a "slow start" phenomena where he tends to lose his first 4 games (3-8 over the last 3 years).
Counterpoint intangible: Burrow is 20-5 while playing at home, and 2-0 against the Jags.
Given this is a Jacksonville home game and coming off a win where they showcased a lot of their strengths, as opposed to Bengals who barely beat the Browns, I'm feeling that Jags are not only going to cover a spread of +3.5 but also win the game outright, which makes the Jags my first official Upset of the Week.
Disagree with anything, or have something to add to this analysis? Feel free to let me know! If you think a bigger upset may happen, make the case for it here! We will keep honest track to see how my (and anyone else's) predicitons are going. Some kinda special merit award for those who pick the biggest upset each week. How does that sound?