The WINTER, I use this name to mark a period where the market is clearly irrational and tends to become even more irrational. Just like 2009 in the Bitcoin context (2010 and especially the second part of 2010 were the quite different season already with sharp price rices, winners and losers and some already declared that "they had missed the bus").
The WINTER is time full of potential, but the fruits are far far in the future.

Hypothesis no 3: "The investors abilities to being aware, exploit and enjoy the WINTER are the main determinants of their success".

Hypothesis no 4: "The WINTER is quite usual thing: every year has WINTERS." Hypothesis no 5: "Being aware of WINTER is unusual".

Being aware of the WINTER is not the same as exploiting it, it is possible that investor has no resources to take a position (to go long or short) in irrationally undervalued (overvalued) asset. Exploiting of WINTER is not the same as enjoying it, it is possible that the impatience to get fruits is so great that investor loses his position before the next season begins.

Some WINTERS are more liquid than others (enable to invest more resources is it). One prominent example of very liquid WINTER was the first part of 1991 in the Soviet Union where the prices of domestic assets formed only a fraction of the prices of foreign assets but the rouble/usd nominal exchange rate (instead of rising to eliminate this inequilibrium) prepares even to fall even more making domestic asset cheaper and cheaper and cheaper and it seemed that there were no end to this process.
The Bitcoin WINTER was not liquid - it was not possible to invest even hundred thousand usd into it. You had not to be wealthy to be an early Bitcoiner. But you definitely needed some other resources. What kind of resources?