It's is impossible to time the absolute bottom and history has it that accumulating during bear markets and deep corrections ("deep red") rewards long-term holders.
If you are newbie investor then why are you try to figure out if there is a dip or not? or changing your strategy based on perceptions of dip or not?
I would think that first a newbie is getting started and perhaps simultaneously figuring out his cashflow, so for example how much discretionary income that he has, so if he is buying bitcoin on a regular basis, then he is making sure that he has enough discretionary income and that he is buying bitcoin with his discretionary funds.
Of course there can be guys who come to bitcoin and they already have funds that they had saved up and/or invested in other areas and they want to move that money to bitcoin, so maybe it could be worth while for them to consider when to get in, but if they are brand new to bitcoin, then they presumptively don't have any bitcoin so wouldn't they get in right away rather than waiting until they believe that there is fear.. and why would they even be considering selling if they might have an investment timeline of 4-10 years or longer.
It seems that you (Obulis) are wanting to play the wave within the cycles.. Do you think that you can figure out when to sell? and presumptively you would be planning to buy back? But if you are selling, have you even accumulated enough bitcoin?
You have ONLY been registered on the forum for a bit more than a year and a half. have you already accumulated a position or are you still accumulating? Sounds like you got it figured out. Maybe you might want to explain more how you have been doing your bitcoin accumulation for the last couple of years? presuming that you have already been accumulating since early 2024. Or maybe you got into bitcoin before your forum registration date?
From my own perspective, every new investor's priority shouldn't be to try to guess dips, rather they should put more effort into making sure that the basics are in place, which is knowing and understanding their cash flow, identifying their discretionary income and then committing themselves to a consistent approach (which is the DCA) of buying more bitcoin with that leftover money. If you are a brand new investor and don't own any bitcoin yet, then you will be wrong to be waiting for DIPs or the perfect time before you can start buying, instead, your priority should be to simply get started immediately, because over a horizon of 4-10 years, what matters more wouldn't be the exact entry point, but just being on the moving train.
It's completely true that most folks who already have savings and assets might think a little bit harder about when to deploy those funds, but still, that doesn't justify the fact that the best time to deploy those funds must necessarily be during a dip, and when you move ahead to wait around for dips, it can often backfire, because you might not really see the dip you're waiting for, and even when it comes, it might not be at the price you were anticipating it to be, thereby making you miss out on potential gains while waiting for what you felt would be the best buying opportunity. Bitcoin mostly rewards those who are dedicated and consistent, people who always second guesing the market.
And this is exactly why i really don't see much need for newbies to worry themselves about the best time to ride the wave in a cycle or when to sell, particularly if they haven't established any meaningful financial position yet. Rather than bothering on which strategy would fit them more, it'll make more sense to build a meaningful position first and then along the way, they can refine their strategy later on.
So from my point of view, the real deal isn't the investor's ability to perfectly time the DIP but their ability to consistently and steadily stack up those sats and also their ability to always stay disciplined to continue stacking for the longer term. The foundation of your investment is exactly what gives you that push, the drive and sets you on a path that you can benefit from the coming cycles and not some sort of a clever timing attempt.