Yo mate, I said it’s EASIER (Not Easy) to predict witching the long run, compared to attempting to predict it within the short term. Historically, Bitcoin has been known for its long term growth, and even if it’s true that past performances doesn’t always guarantee future results, but to an extent we can believe beyond reasonable doubt that it’ll most likely continue in that trend within the long term, unlike attempting to predict the price of Bitcoin within the short term, because short term movement has never been in any particular trend, and that’s why I said that it is easier to predict Bitcoin within the long haul, compared to the short term.
It is not possible to predict Bitcoin in the short term, you will not even be able to predict whether the price of Bitcoin will increase or decrease in the short term. But in the long term, this prediction is a bit easier, although we cannot say for sure, but our expectation and long-term prediction is that the price of Bitcoin will increase in the long term.
But if you mention a specific price, then it is not possible to predict the price of Bitcoin in the long term and in the short term. That is, the price of Bitcoin can never be predicted with certainty.
It is just a guess. Our big expectation in the long term is that Bitcoin is bullish in the long term.
If we suggest that we consider that the bitcoin price is likely to continue to have inclinations to go UP, we are not just guessing. We don't know, but we are not guessing. Bitcoin has a certain history including ongoing development that has ongoingly built infrastructure around it that has continuously continued to cause its various network effects to continue to build (the
seven network effects outlined by Trace Mayer). We are not just guessing when we consider what bitcoin is likely to be inclined to do into the future.
The fact that bitcoin is a highly volatile asset should tell us that the price is unstable and at such you can’t predict what the price will be even in the next seconds, it keeps going up and down at almost every seconds.
I have come to realize that most people still don't understand the word
( volatility) because if we really understand the meaning of this term, this ups and downs that is happening in the market won't be a challenge to us anymore. But it surprises me to see that people still get panic till this time, aside from not understanding the meaning of
volatility is there any possible reason why most people are still being afraid till this time? Can we say is due to lack of discipline? Though lack of discipline can also have a hand in that but first of all we need to understand the term
(volatility) if we can be able to understand this very well being disciplined is not going to be a big deal.
So you say that most people don't understand volatility, but then you don't really give any explanation regarding what is volatility.
I frequently have proclaimed that volatility is one of the things that is most inevitable in bitcoin, which likely means that if we recognize/appreciate volatility to be inevitable, then we have to figure out ways to deal with that inevitability (both financially and psychologically). So then any plan that we make and execute should attempt to account for such likely ongoing inevitable aspects of bitcoin.
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Age is a factor. if you got in dirt cheap say 100 coins for 100 each you spent 10,000,
so in 2017 at 1,900,000 for those 100 coins selling all of them if you are 60-70 years old does not seem unreasonable.
Sure age is a bit of a factor in regards to determinining to get into bitcoin in the first place, so if this guy was 60-70, and he was expecting at least a 4 year investment timeline, then sure by the time 2017 came, then maybe he would have had 4 years invested, but he was not ONLY motivated by the 4 year investment timeline, but also by how much the price ended up going up in 2013 (from $100 to $1,200), but then after the 2013 price peak, the price again went up from about $250-ish in 2015 to $19,666 in late 2017.
A person who bought at around $100 would have had been buying in 2013, which by 2017, they would have had already held 4 years, yet it does not seem reasonable for the guy to necessarily sell all of his coins merely because he is old, unless he hardly had any clues about what he was buying, and sure he has some inclination to have some money in cash, but under your theory, this guy is not going to even have any coins in 2017, since under your theory, he would have sold them all at some point in 2013 when the BTC price went up to $1,200..
I also don't see how it is reasonable to sell all of your coins at $19k, even if we can presume that he had not already sold them all, even though for sure going from $100 to $19k is a 190x increase in a fairly short time of about 4-ish years, yet the price did not just get to $19k from $100, so there were various points along the way that some coins could have had been sold to hedge the bet, and perhaps would have already been sold under your way of thinking about the whole matter.
From the perspective of the elderly guy, as you seem to be suggesting it to be, he was already inclined to sell based on the extensiveness of BTC's uppity price move, even if he had initially been motivated to stay invested at least 4 years..
So maybe we could reconsider the guy and consider that he might have had sole a little at $1k - let's say 1-5 coins, or even up to 10 BTC (which is 10%) sold at $1k, and so if we go with the selling of 10% of his coins every doubling, and the first sale at 10x his investment costs, then the data might look something like this.
At what price sold?
1) $1k
2) $2k
3) $4k
4) $8k
5) $16k
Amount sold 10% of the stash
1) 10 BTC
2) 9 BTC
3) 8.1 BTC
4) 7.3 BTC
5) 6.56 BTC
You can figure out the rest (and you can
use my spreadsheet and/or formulas to try to figure out how the numbers might work out). Nonetheless by the time this guy gets to $19k, he still has right around 59 BTC, and your next sale is scheduled for $32k.
Of course you can adjust the amounts and the intervals. I would consider that the presumption is that the person had reached a status of overaccumulation and had figured out a plan in which he started to take profits at 10x price appreciation. Not unreasonable, but expecting that somehow he buys at the bottom and sells at the top, that seems like a bit of a fantasy, and even impractical.
but I venture to say if someone went from 10,000 to 1,900,000 they may sell 50 coins or half.
950,000 and 600,000 after taxes works for many
You are still living a bit of a fantasy to consider that guys are going to be able to time their buys and sales in such a way or that it is even practical to have those kinds of expectations, when you personally seem to be ongoingly obsessed with taking profits rather than letting matters ride, and yeah, age is a bit of a factor in terms of when to get in and also as you suggest, there might be inclinations for guys with shorter investment timelines to be inclined to take profits sooner rather than just letting the matter play out over a longer period, even if they might be bullish on the asset.