Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Merits 1 from 1 user
Re: Buy the DIP, and HODL!
by
aoluain
on 22/09/2025, 10:12:59 UTC
⭐ Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

[edited out]
I agree that trying to time the market to buy Bitcoin does not define DCA but it can
very much be part of the strategy to it as well as Buying the dip.

Both DCA and buying the dip are largely general terms and not an exact science,
i.e how much of a dip? qualifies for BTD we could ask or is it not ok to try and pursue
your lowest cost average?
DCA - Dollar Cost Average - if someone is so regimental as to try and time
the market when buying everytime well thats ok, they are trying to maximise their
average likewise with BTD they are trying to get the max Bitcoin for their purchase.

I dont see the point of it though if you are not willing to time the market everytime.

Anyone can mix and match buying strategies at any time based on their own cashflow particulars and their other personal factors, even though there may be a bit more of a preference for newbies to invest regular, such as weekly, but there is nothing stopping them from lump summing with money that they might already have or even lump summing at any time that additional money might come in.

Buy the dip might not be as preferred for beginners, since it has a tendency to allow for waiting, which might not be a good idea, unless decently large amounts had already been invested.  Each person has to decide what they consider to be a decently large position. 

I can see that you are a bit concerned about your average cost per BTC, aoluain.   Yet if you have been accumulating bitcoin for 4 years in a steady way then your average cost per BTC should be around the 200-WMA, which surely the BTC spot price tends to stay above the 200-WMA.. yet at the same time, the longer that you are accumulating, then the 200WMA is likely to be moving up faster than your average price per BTC is rising.  In other words, the longer you are accumulating BTC, it is likely that your average cost per BTC is becoming lower and lower relative to the rate that the 200-WMA is going up  (and relative to BTC's spot price too).

Of course, you, aoluain, have already been registered on the forum since early 2017, so you might have had already had plenty of chances to build up your BTC stash over the past 8.5 years, but if a person is newer to bitcoin, they may be trying to accumulate at any way that they can, and they cannot be sure if there is going to be a dip or not, so they might consider that it is better to just keep accumulating regularly rather than waiting for dips that might not end up happening.

Yet, even a person with a $30k income who had been $100 per week for the past few months might start to think that it could be to their advantage to buy some more bitcoin with some savings that they have or maybe they receive some kind of bonus pay that allows them to consider their options.   If they receive $2,500 in bonus pay, then all of a sudden they have right around 6 months worth of their DCA that they could put in right away, or maybe they consider if they will defer by time (DCA) or defer by price (buying the dip).  These are not easy choices, even though the newbie migh prefer to invest more of his bonus amount sooner rather than deferring... and perhaps once he had been investing a year or two, then maybe at that point he might consider letting off (or slowing down) or employing strategies that might involve deferral rather than buying right away as his money comes available. 

I have even projected out a variety of possible income scenarios, even so aggressive as a person investing 25% of his income into bitcoin, and even in those cases, the person still might want to accumulate at that same rate (if they can keep it up) for at least 2 full cycles..  yet at the same time, people choose differently, and if someone does not have any other investments (besides bitcoin and cash) then they may well want to buttress up their investment into other things, and perhaps start to feel that they have enough in bitcoin once they had invested a year's of their income into it (after 4 years for the person investing 25% per year).  It is not easy for guys to invest 25% per year, so sometimes they just want to let off so that they are not stressing themselves out so much with how much they are putting into bitcoin as compared with other places that they could be putting money..

Ah no J, I'm not concerned at all about my average cost. I have never been able to read charts to
forecast market shifts. I keep an eye not regularly on the MACD and RSI charts when I am
ready to make another purchase. Personally I know its really difficult to time the market so I dont
really. Take today for example the market has dropped again to $112k from $116 yesterday so I
am getting really close to a buy point, I wont loose sleep if I miss the bottom or it it falls further
after I buy because I know in the long term I really doesnt make much of a difference.

But I am sure there are people who might be obsessed with trying to time the market which is ok,
I can understand they would like to get the "biggest bang for their buck"
I just cant dedicate the time and effort to do it myself, I have never dedicated the time to do it
that way.

2016 was when I got my first Bitcoin and all the subsequent buys through 2017 I couldnt tell you at
what Price and if it was when the market was up or down, It doesnt matter to me 8 years later.