I'd be interested in researching this a bit more as we all know how the FTX situation ended for the market. If we're starting to see obvious cases of entities using paper Bitcoin and not being able to cover client holdings, it is time to say goodbye to the market for a couple years.
Would a repeat of the FTX scenario necessarily play out to the downside?
I would think so. If a company holding a lot of coins on behalf of users turned out not to have them, it would set off an investigation as well as bankruptcy. Assets that were being held by the company would be frozen and users would have themselves trapped in a long legal battle in hopes to recover anything. The market would see this as a breakdown and a lot of people speculating on the price of Bitcoin would view this as a sign to exit the market. It's best if everything is functioning as advertised.
again, IMHO if you have a recession companies who have gotten coins on the cheap will sell downward to keep their stock up imho...and lock in profits and of course their jobs
on those who play with stocks and btc/crypto for the company. Anything above 5% in a tanking start of a recession is golden. Great the Corporations are getting into
btc/crypto...but remember what goes into a corporation eventually gets sold to save the almighty stock ..as that is what determines right or wrong for direction today
perception is everything. So pretty sure with 24/7 selling ...btc will be the canary in the gold mine and get flushed first. Blackrock having a 'notion' about 1/2 a decade...now
HODL'ing is a fantasy indeed. Now btc/crypto WILL do much better then bonds in such a recession view..along with land and gold....but like land and btc/crypto it will
likely do much better then 4-5% bonds in the USA....and come back. But the 24/7 panic selling on above with 'Corp Think' will bite the price in the ass at any downturn.
Remember, I know squat and and am typing here on bitcointalk...but how it seems to me. Also a 'recession' is coming, I've seen the signs and gone thru 4 or more. So
prepare folks.

don't remind me that 3 of 4 years in BTC are mostly pain...