Bitcoin's price had actually reached $118,000, and I didn't even understand why it suddenly dropped to $109,000.
It's truly shocking. (...)
It's not shocking because there was too much leverage. Someone pulled the rug and all those idiots who bet on rate cuts meaning an immediate pump in BTC price got liquidated. The pump is coming but all those gamblers were too early. They put their money in the game and got destroyed, which is why we had a biggest liquidation event of this year and why some people are now running away expecting a bear market because they feel like large liquidation event might start it. There's of course no historical data to support that. In fact major liquidations were usually a flush before a reversal, like the covid crash, or in 2021 the 50% crash to 30k.
What surprises me is that despite cuts the USD is pumping and gold and stocks are dumping. That's what is taking bitcoin further down, but mark my words, USD is going to go much lower in the coming months and gold and bitcoin are going higher. USD pump is fake.
That sudden move from $118k down to $109k looked shocking on the surface but when you peel it back it’s classic leverage getting wiped out traders piled in too heavily expecting an instant pump from the rate cut narrative and when the market didn’t give it to them they all got liquidated in one sweep that cascade creates the illusion of a rug pull but it’s really just over-leveraged positions collapsing at the same time. Large liquidation events like this aren’t unusual in bitcoin’s history and more often than not they clear out the noise before the real move begins the covid crash in 2020 or the huge drop to $30k in 2021 both looked like the end at the time but they were resets that paved the way for even higher runs so history suggests this kind of flush doesn’t start bear markets it ends weak hands and resets the field.
The usd strength at the same time definitely adds pressure seeing gold and stocks fall while the dollar pumps is strange to casual observers but it’s a short-term reaction markets are repositioning quickly and that’s why bitcoin followed down with it but like you said the dollar pump doesn’t look sustainable the macro picture points to eventual weakness and when that happens hard assets like gold and bitcoin should be the big winners.