I understand that sometimes we are not really sure if we have reached a status of overaccumulation, so if you are not sure, you don't want to be the guy that bought 2 pizzas for 10k bitcoin and ending up without very many pizzas..

At the same time, just to repeat some of my earlier ideas, if you have allowed your portfolio to go up 3x, 5x or some other kind of an appreciable amount, then after that, you start to sell up to 10% every time the BTC price doubles (or some variation of that), it is hard to proclaim that you are selling too many coins too soon.

I suspect that there might be some guys who might not have even put 10% of their annual income into bitcoin, so even if their BTC holdings had 10xed, they with ONLY around 1 or 2 years of their income in bitcoin (even accounting for BTC's price appreciation.

I frequently think that we have to be a bit more aggressive, and if we have put anywhere between 50% and 2x of our annual income into bitcoin, then we should be in a decent place after bitcoin had gone up 10x in value.

yeah, sometimes we might wish that we had put in more, but having had put 50% of our annual income into bitcoin is way better than putting 10% or less  of our annual income into bitcoin, since it takes way less bitcoin price appreciation if we have those higher amounts in BTC... and even a guy who has 50% of his annual income invested into bitcoin would end up having 5x his annual income in bitcoin if bitcoin had gone up 10x.

I personally think that we have to have 10x our annual income when bitcoin is valued at the 200-WMA in order to really be at entry level fuck-you status, so yeah, there are guys who want to valuate their bitcoin holdings based on spot prices rather than the 200-WMA, which surely has historically put guys into awkward situations of having had prematurely declared themselves as being in entry level fuck you status, when ultimately, it was not true because it seems to be too evasive to be trying to valuate your bitcoin based on spot prices that may or may not be sustainable in anything less than a 4-year timeline, and if we are starting to cash out on our bitcoin, we need to have our bitcoin holdings already in a sustainable place..

Maybe another problem is that if we are trying to ONLY shave off profits at one or two price points, we want to get our price points correct, so then we get nervous about such price points, yet if we already know that our bitcoin qualifies for selling every doubling, we can figure out a place to begin such sales, in the event that we don't want to start selling right now, the maybe we start selling at 2.5% of our stash at some higher price point, and every time it goes up an additional 25%, we sell an additional 2.5%.  We can  do it in 10% intervals too... every time it goes up 10%, we sell 1% of our bitcoin holdings, so then by the time it goes up 100%, we have sold 10%, and we can play around with the number, and I see no reason to panic if the amount is merely selling less than 10% every time the BTC price doubles.


It is not always clear if some of us learn or tend towards making similar mistakes, because surely each time can feel different, so we lose our focus.

Even if you had two cycles of making mistakes, maybe each cycle gets to be fewer mistakes, so if you got through 2022 without making any major mistakes, then you might have had been able to make up for your mistakes in the first two cycles.

Sure, it sounds worse when I am reminding you that you are likely entering into 4 cycles, especially if you are saying that your first bitcoin related mistakes started in 2014.

There are likely going to be folks who are similarly situated to you, who have to go through the same, or similar mistakes that you already went through, and so in that sense, we are still early, since there are still quite a few new entrants who are going to be coming to bitcoin and making the same mistakes that you already made and hopefully, you have learned from your mistakes to still be able to take advantage of our being early (not as early as we could have had been, but still early, relatively speaking).


Yeah.  I have close to 700 days of log in time.. It adds up, over the years..


Hahahahaha

Sometimes I have to try to figure out if there might be a better way to say some of the things that I say, since some of my talking themes are repetitive, yet every once in a while I feel that I have come across some improved way of saying the same (or a similar) thing...


Earlier this year (maybe just a couple of months ago?), you seemed to have had been suffering through your own dilemmas regarding price points at which you were planning to sell (or shave some off) this cycle.

Apparently, you resolved your dilemmas.

Hopefully, you won't be suffering too many regrets.


Please stop.  I don't like that image.  It is like the dog drinking coffee in the burning building and saying.  "This is fine."