Of course, Minor Miner's numbers are also completely wrong since he's using a 3 month luck figure when we know for a fact that the only confirmed "bad miners" were only around for 1 month. Similarly, the assumption is that the pool luck would have been, at least, neutral without their influence, which is an assumption that has no basis.
I changed the post. I did not know they have only been here 30 days. Still do not since maybe they used a different account and changed? I do not know. I assume you are confident that it is only this one bad (or unfortunate) actor and only four weeks though. It is still $1.5M. I assumed you would have run at 98% or so (yes a little bad luck and YES you can argue but we will never know what your luck would have been otherwise).
Enough hijacking of the thread, I have said what I think plus if it is four weeks and four weeks only, I left the pool about that time so I do not have a dog in this fight then.