The issue is that the OP's "good/bad investment" is based off of a single variable - initial distribution. Obviously, this assumes that the coin is only ever used for a store of value and/or to trade, and never for any other purpose (ie. colored coins). The OP assumes that these coins have pretty much zero intrinsic value - because if they had some intrinsic value then initial distribution cannot be the sole determining factor in whether it is a good investment or not.