Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Major correction to rally coming...
by
714
on 30/12/2011, 07:32:21 UTC

Zhoutong has said that most of his users are long right now, and I presume this is on the order of tens of thousands of coins.

Based on a little correspondence with Zhoutong I have no reason to be overly critical. In fact I had a very good customer service experience with him with regard to a short liquidation that seemed overpriced. His explanation was honest and informative as were the actions he took to address the matter. I couldn't give him anything less than a grade of A on this particular situation along with hearty encouragement to keep up the good work.

However, IMO he should probably tread carefully around making statements such as the above, assuming he actually did. It would be best to either keep the pool dark and the customer's positions private, or to make systematic disclosures in a consistent fashion visible to the entire customer base through the web site. Statements like "most of his users are long right now" are not particularly helpful without quantitative grounding and worst case could certainly be construed as attempts at manipulation.

In this example, on the one hand one could conclude that there's a lot of coins long as you do. On the other hand. the net customer positions at any brokerage are nearly always going to be long, except in the specific cases of securities that are heavily shorted. The statement could therefore be entirely true and also quite devoid of useful meaning.

One of the basic principles of successfully handing out financial analysis is to always have an explanation no matter what may actually happen. If you follow the U.S. stock market you may know of a fellow named James Cramer, he's a master of this. He often has 2 or 3 explanations such that one can be dredged up to support just about any viewpoint or outcome. At the same time he's well known for a track record that has been flat over time. Since he makes his living not from investing but as a sort of entertainer/stand up comedian/raconteur this is ideal, it makes any suggestion of manipulation hard to substantiate. He's a crafty little bastard, and no one should take him seriously other than as a data point regarding a certain type of hustle  Smiley