Re: [6600Th] Eligius: 0% Fee BTC, 105% PPS NMC, No registration, CPPSRB (New Thread)
There are a lot of misconceptions in your analysis, the odds of hashing a block with positive luck is exactly 50%, thats the reason we can define good or bad luck, and how the difficulty works.
On the other hand finding a block with good luck does not shrink the queue as you may take into account the shelved shares that everyone has, so you can assume safely that unless we hit a extremely lucky streak and all shelved shares all cleared, we will never award less than 25BTC, so the queue will only shrink due to payment limit shenanigans or manual payouts.
On the other hand finding a block with good luck does not shrink the queue as you may take into account the shelved shares that everyone has, so you can assume safely that unless we hit a extremely lucky streak and all shelved shares all cleared, we will never award less than 25BTC, so the queue will only shrink due to payment limit shenanigans or manual payouts.
You made me realise a mistake in my analysis; you are right that luck does not influence the queue length by itself as shelved shares are payed and offset this exactly. The only "natural" cause of queue length variability is payment treshold effects.
What I DID calculate though, is the increase of each miner's shelved shares. But since it increases in sqrt(N), N being the number of shares you submitted, even if continously increases, then the relative fraction of your shelved shares over all your shares decreases.
Since I made a mistake, my code is pointless
