Post
Topic
Board Securities
Re: [HAVELOCK] PETAMINE - NEW IPO, NEW HARDWARE, 1,500 TH/S HASH RATE
by
MrSike
on 19/05/2014, 02:41:30 UTC
I went ahead and did some estimations based off of an average difficulty rise being around 14-15%, 14 day target difficulty adjustment period, 35% reinvestment, 2 week delivery time of new Bitfury miners from reinvestment funds used every week. This is of course reliant upon if we reinvest 35% into Bitfury BF3500 miners every week and each runs at a consistent 3.5th/s. My other predictions earlier were too optimistic and didn't account for difficulty adjustment or reinvestment which I now added in to the calculation.

Worst case scenario 0 shares sold during IPO over 9 weeks to pay back debt after IPO is finished. 10 week dividend total 61.61714213 BTC
Difficulty   Network Hash   Peta hashrate   Estimated BTC   Hosting Fee   Peta BTC   Reinvestment   Dividends   BTC to pay back
10092894592   72248.856   1500.000   523.192   130.798   392.394   137.338   255.056   1701.944
11606828781   83086.185   1500.000   454.949   113.737   341.212   119.424   221.788   1480.156
11606828781   83086.185   1570.248   476.255   119.064   357.192   125.017   232.175   1247.982
13347853098   95549.112   1631.333   430.246   107.561   322.684   112.939   209.745   1038.237
13347853098   95549.112   1695.279   447.111   111.778   335.333   117.367   217.966   820.271
15350031063   109881.479   1753.047   402.040   100.510   301.530   105.536   195.995   624.276
17652535722   126363.701   1813.080   361.572   90.393   271.179   94.913   176.266   448.009
17652535722   126363.701   1867.061   372.337   93.084   279.253   97.739   181.514   266.495
20300416080   145318.256   1915.609   332.190   83.048   249.143   87.200   161.943   104.552
20300416080   145318.256   1965.602   340.860   85.215   255.645   89.476   166.169   -61.617

Best case scenario 33k shares sold during IPO 0 weeks to pay back debt after IPO is finished. 10 week dividends total 2018.617 ~ .02 BTC per share
Difficulty         Network Hash   Peta hashrate   Estimated BTC   Hosting Fee   Peta BTC   Reinvestment   Dividends   BTC to pay back
10092894592   72248.856           1500.000           523.192          130.798   392.394   137.338          255.056   -255.056
11606828781   83086.185           1500.000           454.949          113.737   341.212   119.424          221.788   -476.844
11606828781   83086.185           1570.248           476.255          119.064   357.192   125.017          232.175   -709.018
13347853098   95549.112           1631.333           430.246          107.561   322.684   112.939          209.745   -918.763
13347853098   95549.112           1695.279           447.111          111.778   335.333   117.367          217.966   -1136.729
15350031063   109881.479           1753.047           402.040          100.510   301.530   105.536          195.995   -1332.724
17652535722   126363.701           1813.080           361.572          90.393   271.179   94.913          176.266   -1508.991
17652535722   126363.701           1867.061           372.337          93.084   279.253   97.739          181.514   -1690.505
20300416080   145318.256           1915.609           332.190           83.048   249.143   87.200          161.943   -1852.448
20300416080   145318.256           1965.602           340.860           85.215   255.645   89.476          166.169   -2018.617

1 batch sold realistic projection 4-5 weeks to pay back debt after IPO finished. 10 week dividend total 1011.617 ~ .013 BTC per share total
Difficulty    Network Hash   Peta hashrate   Estimated BTC   Hosting Fee   Peta BTC   Reinvestment   Dividends   BTC to pay back
10092894592   72248.856   1500.000   523.192   130.798   392.394   137.338   255.056   751.944
11606828781   83086.185   1500.000   454.949   113.737   341.212   119.424   221.788   530.156
11606828781   83086.185   1570.248   476.255   119.064   357.192   125.017   232.175   297.982
13347853098   95549.112   1631.333   430.246   107.561   322.684   112.939   209.745   88.237
13347853098   95549.112   1695.279   447.111   111.778   335.333   117.367   217.966   -129.729
15350031063   109881.479   1753.047   402.040   100.510   301.530   105.536   195.995   -325.724
17652535722   126363.701   1813.080   361.572   90.393   271.179   94.913   176.266   -501.991
17652535722   126363.701   1867.061   372.337   93.084   279.253   97.739   181.514   -683.505
20300416080   145318.256   1915.609   332.190   83.048   249.143   87.200   161.943   -845.448
20300416080   145318.256   1965.602   340.860   85.215   255.645   89.476   166.169   -1011.617

My 1 year estimate on total coins mined is just under 10,000 BTC unless CryptX can get better miners than the Bitfury BF3500 or some that are cheaper btc/ghs. Or if the Bitcoin price jumps up considerably the reinvestment will be able to purchase many more miners. There are way too many variables for an accurate prediction and as the time frame goes on the less accurate predictions are. That's why I capped out my charts at 10 weeks after IPO even though I've made calculations up to a year out for this mine. This mine is entirely dependent on this upcoming IPO and that is too much of a risk factor for me to take, so I'm out. If the best case scenario happens then I missed out on a good thing but the risk is just too high for me since it's entirely dependent on reinvestment every week.