Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It
from 160 000 000 chips total of gen3.
whatt?! where did you get those numbers? 
Its upper limit from :
1) What is the order of magnitude of 3rd generation chips ASICMiner anticipates to sell (total / first batch / first 3 months)?
re 1) Order of magnitude: Depending on fab capacity. Total target is 10k to 40k wafers, relying on competitors, Bitcoin price, and other factors. A wafer is rated at 40 TH/s.
re 1) Order of magnitude: Depending on fab capacity. Total target is 10k to 40k wafers, relying on competitors, Bitcoin price, and other factors. A wafer is rated at 40 TH/s.
also I see that you're calculating 0.5$ profit per Gh/s ... selling price is from 0.49$ (unlikely for first batches) to 0.99$ (more likely), production costs -0.2$ Gh/s, put this into sheet
so basically, the lower and higher targets takes us between 1 and 4,1 BTC divs per share...
I remember that discussion. To quote myself back in the days...
On AM value assuming $0.8 per ghs profit; at 200 PH production = 0.6 Btc per share. Anything more, we will be in Btc heaven.
If we're extrapolating: 1600 PH/s production at a profit of $0.80 per GH/s gives approximately XBT 4.8 per share. Not bad, huh?
If we're really looking at $0.8 profit per GH/s, we have to consider that this is only the price for the first month(s). The price for following batches will be lower, since mining will become less profitable. So only the first, say, 50 PH/s will make $0.8 per GH/s, afterwards we have to settle for less. That being said, it's not completely unreasonable to expect another 0.6 BTC per share coming from gen 3. Which would (still) be perfectly fine in my books...
I'm AM bullish, but expecting (a lot) more than 0.5 BTC divs/share for all of gen 3 is delusional these days. Looking at the competition, this is still more than fine. Prepare for 0.25 BTC divs/share and take any surplus as a nice bonus. Disclaimer: This is no trading advice, remember that I may be very wrong about this. Also, I do own shares.