Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

People had very good arguments in decemeber why it would go down more so I wanted to see if anyone had the opposite argument for why it might go up.

Have you seen this?

Slippery Slope's Million Dollar Logistic Model

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=366214.0

I am rather sceptical about this. Not because it's a bad model overall, but because I suspect the amount of fiat coming in does not correlate well to adoption. Namely, over-represented speculators must have vastly over-pumped the market, so it's hard to tell where we 'should' be at this point.

I'd be interested in seeing a better model, if there is one.

I don't have one (it's always easier to criticise someone else's than come up with your own work). I think it's a reasonable model. The catch is that adoption is ultimately about getting Joe Public on board. Right now, most of the people who own bitcoins are hodlers or speculators. My guess is that both of those categories will own a lot more bitcoins at any given time than JP who wants to buy stuff with them. What multiple more might give a clue as to how ahead of ourselves we are at the moment. It's hard to estimate, though: how much do you think the average person will keep in bitcoin on full adoption?