Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
JayJuanGee
on 22/05/2014, 02:27:47 UTC
People had very good arguments in decemeber why it would go down more so I wanted to see if anyone had the opposite argument for why it might go up.

Have you seen this?

Slippery Slope's Million Dollar Logistic Model

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=366214.0

I am rather sceptical about this. Not because it's a bad model overall, but because I suspect the amount of fiat coming in does not correlate well to adoption. Namely, over-represented speculators must have vastly over-pumped the market, so it's hard to tell where we 'should' be at this point.

I'd be interested in seeing a better model, if there is one.


Anyone can make a model and to argue why the growth curve will follow that model - so instead of having 10x growth, you could have increasingly graduated growth, such as 9X then 8x then 7x then 6.5x then 6.25x then 6x then 5x then 4x then 3.5x then 3x then 2x then 1.5x then .5x then stable .2x into infinity.  There are a lot of variations of such projected growth that could be argued as feasible.