..If BTC is doing its yearly wave, I can capture maybe 30% of the downtrend with 30% of my position, resulting in a 13% gain in my holdings...
Why so conservative in your estimations? The previous bubbles have had at least 3 times retracement from the top. Catching at least 50 percent wouldnt be that much of a problem?
A times three retractment from start of bubble to the top would put the price in negative figures, no ?