..If BTC is doing its yearly wave, I can capture maybe 30% of the downtrend with 30% of my position, resulting in a 13% gain in my holdings...
Why so conservative in your estimations? The previous bubbles have had at least 3 times retracement from the top. Catching at least 50 percent wouldnt be that much of a problem?
I plan to follow Risto's guidance with regard to the percentage of holdings to trade. I would like to capture 50% of the move - hoping for a double, but I would settle for less. My trades would be so small as to not effect the market, unlike the same percentage of Risto's holdings. Timing the peak could be different this time around, in that November 2013 had a pre-peak at $731 before the actual peak at $1163. I expect perhaps multiple of those pre-peak super-exponential rallies that mislead timers such as me.