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Subject: what is really happening in India (and China and globally)
From: AnonyMint
Date: Thu, May 29, 2014 6:35 am
To: "Armstrong Economics" <armstrongeconomics@gmail.com>
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Before we get into the debate about a global elite that governs the world from behind the DEEPER curtain from which Armstrong has never been, let's first entertain hypothesis on India's future (and how Australia ties in).
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/05/21/australia-a-fresh-look-at-down-under/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/05/20/india/
India is following the forecast we made 2 years ago in Bangkok. I pointed out that there was a double top and that India would breakout to the upside. The government has been way too corrupt and the central bank has been following the traditional nonsense misreading the capital flows and trying to stem the tide. As a nation begins to prosper, it ALWAYS begins to import goods and it also invests its income outside the home country. This causes the current account to decline into negative territory yet it is reflective of a boom, not a bust. The same mistakes were made by Australia in the 1980s. They expected the currency to decline because of a current account deficit yet it rallied. They were totally confused by this development. The Australian Associated Press did an article on me at that time bluntly stating that I was teaching Australia about its current account and how it really functioned.
We distinguished India from the rest of Asia including China. This market should have risen and it has done so. We may yet see the major high form in 2017.
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/05/28/india-the-exception/
I am very familiar with India. You might want to know that India became the largest economy following the fall of the Byzantine Empire. It yielded to China, but it is currently moving to rise again.
...
While the languages are varied, the culture is not. The primary division has been religion so that narrows the diversity to a large extent. In Europe, the language identifies completely different cultures. You do not see Germans marrying Greeks of Italians marrying Irish. Of course there are always some exceptions, but those nationalities that came to America produced a melting pot when they all were forced to speak English. Italian-Irish combinations are very common on the East Cost in New England.
Air Traffic internationally is conducted in English. You cannot fly a plane internationally for an airline unless you can speak English fluently. That allows for communication and cooperation. India would emerge as the strongest economy if it adopted a single language. Often over-looked with respect to India is language. India has become a back-office for a lot of companies because the people have a tendency to move toward English. That allows India to function internationally. So that helps make it an exception. If there was no unifying language like that, India would not advance.
However, the cultural differences emerge when the economy turns down. That is the risk to India in an economic decline.
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/05/29/india-part-ii/
Yes, there is a unified culture.
...
India has been far more united than most people suspect.
Remember I wrote in a previous post that China didn't rise because of some erroneous notion of superior economic performance due to top-down Communist 5 year and 10 year planning, but rather because "it was just time" because the people were so undervalued. Ditto India where 1/4 to 1/3 of the population can't get enough to eat without government subsidies. India is dearth of infrastructure. But as Micheal Pettis explained, China over developed its infrastructure to a level that is higher than the income earning potential of the people. However, China has a large segment of its population that is highly educated, so it should be able to transition to higher valued production and services and absorb some its high-end infrastructure over time. Nevertheless there is a huge debt bubble (i.e. economic waste) that has to be collapsed and written off in China over the next several years.
India has some highly educated, but due to the caste system and higher levels of poverty, a large segment of India's population is undereducated. It doesn't appear that India would be able to duplicate the huge top-down managed debt bubble as China did by perpetually devaluing the Yuan and penalizing savers by locking them in non-market interest rates thus blowing huge bubbles in the stock market and condos, in order to create high enough participation rates for fixed capital investment driven employment for the undereducated. I just can't see India duplicating China's top-down model. India is a model of unified chaos and diversity.
Thus it appears to me that India must rise more organically with lower interference from the State, and private investment and initiative taking the lead. This means a massive push to by the population to become educated and compete, which in itself is an economic driver.
It is only through debt that you can keep the tribes unified economically. I see this in every country. Even China had to use heavy handed tactics and then a debt bubble to keep their sheep in line. Ditto Europe. You can keep the country unified for safe passage via culture, but you won't get extreme patriotism and nationalism unless you have massive debt to cause people to prefer a national priority over selfish priorities.
Thus as we see it is time for India to rise on Martin's chart, I think this is also about the rest of the world declining, and India rising but not no where near as high as where the West was at its peak a decade ago.
China will also peak out at a much lower level than where the West was.
Why?
Because I have been explaining we are moving from the Industrial (fixed capital) Age to the Knowledge Age where individuals will own their productive capacity and can't be bought with financial capital.
Thus the nation-state concept has peaked. The globalists are consolidating power now to try to fend off the Knowledge Age, but they will fail (although they will succeed to enslave those who don't transition and remain dependent on the one world reserve currency and governments).
Martin is entirely missing the big picture.
The individual is rising. Government is dying, and as it last hurrah it will descend into one world government which in fact already exist de facto.
Subject: what is really happening in India (and China and globally)
From: AnonyMint
Date: Thu, May 29, 2014 6:35 am
To: "Armstrong Economics" <armstrongeconomics@gmail.com>
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Before we get into the debate about a global elite that governs the world from behind the DEEPER curtain from which Armstrong has never been, let's first entertain hypothesis on India's future (and how Australia ties in).
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/05/21/australia-a-fresh-look-at-down-under/
Quote from: Armstrong
I pointed out that India was an exception and the political reform could prove to be interesting. The AllOrds has to close above at lease 507000 at year-end to signal it is building a base. A yearly closing above 647000 is required to get the breakout. You can see that the high remains 2007. Despite the rise in gold into 2011, the AllOrds still fell into its low for 2009. This is good, for it shows that Australia is not just a gold play. The potential for a 2017 high still exists as long as the 2009 low holds.
We are starting to see a reversal in the political trend Downunder. The new budget is ending the Age of Entitlement as the socialists call it. The socialists keep expecting more and more and just rob it from someone else. But this trend is collapsing economically. Australia is starting at the beginning of the curve as we are seeing in India. This is well ahead of the USA and Europe. The AllOrds is something to watch for if it indeed starts to sustain recent gains, we can be looking at the high in 2017.
We are starting to see a reversal in the political trend Downunder. The new budget is ending the Age of Entitlement as the socialists call it. The socialists keep expecting more and more and just rob it from someone else. But this trend is collapsing economically. Australia is starting at the beginning of the curve as we are seeing in India. This is well ahead of the USA and Europe. The AllOrds is something to watch for if it indeed starts to sustain recent gains, we can be looking at the high in 2017.
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/05/20/india/
Quote from: Armstrong
Quote
My question is on the Indian elections which happened recently. Mr Narendra Modi has won by a landslide and this is kind of victory margin was only possible due to the unfettered corruption of the previous government.I can clearly observe your theory of people raising against corruption everywhere, in this election verdict.
India is expecting Mr Narendra Modi to work economic miracles. But as you had mentioned Emerging markets are going to slide further into economic depression so has India already turned the corner, or are is it going to slide further.
India is expecting Mr Narendra Modi to work economic miracles. But as you had mentioned Emerging markets are going to slide further into economic depression so has India already turned the corner, or are is it going to slide further.
India is following the forecast we made 2 years ago in Bangkok. I pointed out that there was a double top and that India would breakout to the upside. The government has been way too corrupt and the central bank has been following the traditional nonsense misreading the capital flows and trying to stem the tide. As a nation begins to prosper, it ALWAYS begins to import goods and it also invests its income outside the home country. This causes the current account to decline into negative territory yet it is reflective of a boom, not a bust. The same mistakes were made by Australia in the 1980s. They expected the currency to decline because of a current account deficit yet it rallied. They were totally confused by this development. The Australian Associated Press did an article on me at that time bluntly stating that I was teaching Australia about its current account and how it really functioned.
We distinguished India from the rest of Asia including China. This market should have risen and it has done so. We may yet see the major high form in 2017.
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/05/28/india-the-exception/
Quote from: Armstrong
Quote
In one of your blog you have quoted that There can be no political union, only an economic one. Is India an exception to this rule where about 780 languages are spoken currently and there are more than 2000 dialects? There were 565 princely states in India at the time of Indian Independence. But for a long time in history the land of Bharat was ruled by single rulers. Of course Bharat then was covering lot of south east asia but not just present India.
I am very familiar with India. You might want to know that India became the largest economy following the fall of the Byzantine Empire. It yielded to China, but it is currently moving to rise again.
...
While the languages are varied, the culture is not. The primary division has been religion so that narrows the diversity to a large extent. In Europe, the language identifies completely different cultures. You do not see Germans marrying Greeks of Italians marrying Irish. Of course there are always some exceptions, but those nationalities that came to America produced a melting pot when they all were forced to speak English. Italian-Irish combinations are very common on the East Cost in New England.
Air Traffic internationally is conducted in English. You cannot fly a plane internationally for an airline unless you can speak English fluently. That allows for communication and cooperation. India would emerge as the strongest economy if it adopted a single language. Often over-looked with respect to India is language. India has become a back-office for a lot of companies because the people have a tendency to move toward English. That allows India to function internationally. So that helps make it an exception. If there was no unifying language like that, India would not advance.
However, the cultural differences emerge when the economy turns down. That is the risk to India in an economic decline.
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/05/29/india-part-ii/
Quote from: Armstrong
Quote
India, it is tied down by language. ..it is tied down by culture. The Mahabharata and Ramayana Sanskrit epics were carried by the ancient sages through out the country and passed through the generations by word of mouth Shruti. Thus even before written text, the country was unified.
Our holy places Char Dham 4 holy places Badrinath, Dwarka, Puri and Rameswaram ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Char_Dham ) were spread throughout the country. How will you break it apart ?
Our holy places Char Dham 4 holy places Badrinath, Dwarka, Puri and Rameswaram ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Char_Dham ) were spread throughout the country. How will you break it apart ?
Yes, there is a unified culture.
...
India has been far more united than most people suspect.
Remember I wrote in a previous post that China didn't rise because of some erroneous notion of superior economic performance due to top-down Communist 5 year and 10 year planning, but rather because "it was just time" because the people were so undervalued. Ditto India where 1/4 to 1/3 of the population can't get enough to eat without government subsidies. India is dearth of infrastructure. But as Micheal Pettis explained, China over developed its infrastructure to a level that is higher than the income earning potential of the people. However, China has a large segment of its population that is highly educated, so it should be able to transition to higher valued production and services and absorb some its high-end infrastructure over time. Nevertheless there is a huge debt bubble (i.e. economic waste) that has to be collapsed and written off in China over the next several years.
India has some highly educated, but due to the caste system and higher levels of poverty, a large segment of India's population is undereducated. It doesn't appear that India would be able to duplicate the huge top-down managed debt bubble as China did by perpetually devaluing the Yuan and penalizing savers by locking them in non-market interest rates thus blowing huge bubbles in the stock market and condos, in order to create high enough participation rates for fixed capital investment driven employment for the undereducated. I just can't see India duplicating China's top-down model. India is a model of unified chaos and diversity.
Thus it appears to me that India must rise more organically with lower interference from the State, and private investment and initiative taking the lead. This means a massive push to by the population to become educated and compete, which in itself is an economic driver.
It is only through debt that you can keep the tribes unified economically. I see this in every country. Even China had to use heavy handed tactics and then a debt bubble to keep their sheep in line. Ditto Europe. You can keep the country unified for safe passage via culture, but you won't get extreme patriotism and nationalism unless you have massive debt to cause people to prefer a national priority over selfish priorities.
Thus as we see it is time for India to rise on Martin's chart, I think this is also about the rest of the world declining, and India rising but not no where near as high as where the West was at its peak a decade ago.
China will also peak out at a much lower level than where the West was.
Why?
Because I have been explaining we are moving from the Industrial (fixed capital) Age to the Knowledge Age where individuals will own their productive capacity and can't be bought with financial capital.
Thus the nation-state concept has peaked. The globalists are consolidating power now to try to fend off the Knowledge Age, but they will fail (although they will succeed to enslave those who don't transition and remain dependent on the one world reserve currency and governments).
Martin is entirely missing the big picture.
The individual is rising. Government is dying, and as it last hurrah it will descend into one world government which in fact already exist de facto.