This 'RepublicSpace' guy is some kind of bot which repost reddit comments:
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1ycjdi/whitepaper_decentralized_bitcoin_prediction/I've really enjoyed reading your work. I'm a physicist, so the very idea that we can generate probability distribution functions for human actions is just mind blowing.
Thanks! I hope you'll join our new forum at forum.truthcoin.info
Anyway, I have one question - do you think meta-predictions could counter attempts to game your system? For example, we could start a prediction market that predicts a consensus of voters will vote against the truth in one or more markets. The reason I ask is that Nash equilibria are supposed to make law enforcement unnecessary (For example, in the stop light game it's unnecessary to have a law against running the stop light because players have enough incentive not to). In the same way, doesn't the protocol act like law enforcement, and if so could such "second-order" predictions offload some of the work of ensuring players remain honest?
I don't. I think that people would bet, in the meta-market, that the Decision "Will a consensus of voters vote against the truth?" would itself resolve to 'No'. Moreover, if they thought 'Yes', why would they bet that way (how would they know that the Yes result would itself be accurately resolved)?
I think your example might be mixing some GT topics. For a start, off-path reasoning (usually called off-the-path) must always be
considered even if it is never
experienced, because there is a clear
relationship between the consideration and the experience. Imagine a magical prison, where as soon as anyone commits a crime, the prison magically becomes aware of this and teleports the criminal into a prison cell. In this world, probably no one would ever commit a crime (the 'path' would be No Crime), but this fact
results from the fact that the prison has this magic power.
The protocol acts as law enforcement, but it is required in this case to build the payoff matrix. Second order prediction wouldn't offload anything without another Truth-Source.
I hope you ask any new questions on the new forum!