November 29, 2013 peak at $1163 - doubling from $581 in 13 days.
The November peak is interesting because the rally to $758 on November 18, doubled from $359 in 6 days. I therefore thought that $758 was the peak, but the correction down from $758 was only to $379 which did not appear deep enough to me and other observers that day.
I suspect that the next bubble, being widely anticipated will have one or more dramatic pre-peak spikes that double in about a week.
I will combine the doubling time indicator with a threshold from the Log10 Delta From Trend chart when predicting the next peak.
The November peak is interesting because the rally to $758 on November 18, doubled from $359 in 6 days. I therefore thought that $758 was the peak, but the correction down from $758 was only to $379 which did not appear deep enough to me and other observers that day.
I suspect that the next bubble, being widely anticipated will have one or more dramatic pre-peak spikes that double in about a week.
I will combine the doubling time indicator with a threshold from the Log10 Delta From Trend chart when predicting the next peak.
This coincides with my thinking. I actually went bearish and sold at the Nov 18 peak last year, which was premature but excusable in light of the doubling principle. This time I will try to follow the Log10 delta more closely and also try to trade the volatility should that happen. I think now that 3000 is a realistic lower limit for any selling, and I don't intend to trade the uptrend from here on.
My earlier bold prediction (when we were at 420) was 650 by the end of June. Considering that we are only in the beginning of June and that level is already tested, I don't think it does any harm to the uptrend if we stay here for several more weeks. Breaching 500 in anything except a flashcrash would be worrying, but I regard the chances for that happening as low (20%).
Just make sure you guys keep us updated!
