Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It
Disclaimer: I don't own any of these shares anymore, but am tempted to pick some up again.
My calculation/speculation:
- Cashflow is near zero as of May 27
- Liabilities are near zero
- So NRE-costs for gen 3 are paid for
- May batch of 33.5PH is paid for: Point "Materials" in the balance sheit is ~6.1 Million USD ( ~33,500,000 GH*~0.2 USD/GH ). Really curious though if "Materials" are really chips and what "Products" translates to
Please correct me if I'm wrong somewhere, thanks in advance. Also @ the spoondoolies-fans: Do you know for how many dollars 1GH of SP30 chips is going to be produced?
My calculation/speculation:
- Cashflow is near zero as of May 27
- Liabilities are near zero
- So NRE-costs for gen 3 are paid for
- May batch of 33.5PH is paid for: Point "Materials" in the balance sheit is ~6.1 Million USD ( ~33,500,000 GH*~0.2 USD/GH ). Really curious though if "Materials" are really chips and what "Products" translates to
1) What is the status, size, and expected delivery of the next batch of chips? What about the one after that?
re 1) This month: 850k, next month: 3.35m (order size), June: 6.7m (order size), assuming each chip is 10G.
- May batch is being sold for ~0.35USD/GH, though I don't really believe the following source...0.35USD/GH just seems way too low. If they really sell that low, most 28nm chip-producers will seriously have tough times coming up re 1) This month: 850k, next month: 3.35m (order size), June: 6.7m (order size), assuming each chip is 10G.
Quote
- So revenue for May batch: 33,500,000 GH * 0.35 USD/GH = 11,725,000 USD. One third of this may be retained for the next batch, leaves ~7.8m USD for the May batch-dividend. Translates to ~0.0296 BTC per share @ 660USD per BTC.(BoardMember1) so I underatand that the next payments to the shareholders shoudl happen in May....
(BoardMember2) regarding dividends, do you have a target for retained earnings vs. dividends?
(BoardMember2) if retained earnings is high we need to consider the security mechanisms for the company treasury.
(FC) At most 1:2. Most retained are for short-time spendings (license, wafer/components order). There are no long-time plan of retaining since we won't buy land/bond/etc.
(BoardMember2) Alternatively AM could get "invested" in related businesses
(BoardMember2) If no opportunities exist I agree to an aggressive dividend schedule
(BoardMember2) regarding dividends, do you have a target for retained earnings vs. dividends?
(BoardMember2) if retained earnings is high we need to consider the security mechanisms for the company treasury.
(FC) At most 1:2. Most retained are for short-time spendings (license, wafer/components order). There are no long-time plan of retaining since we won't buy land/bond/etc.
(BoardMember2) Alternatively AM could get "invested" in related businesses
(BoardMember2) If no opportunities exist I agree to an aggressive dividend schedule
The dividend schedule will be aggressive, as AM will not require large sums of retained capital. The rationale is that AM doesn't need to invest large sums into infrastructure and that the majority of chip production costs will be covered by the business partners on a contract schedule.
- If the June batch (67PH) can really be paid for by just 1/3 of the May batch-revenue plus the contract schedule with business partners and will sell for 0.3 USD/GH, we're looking at 33.5 USD per share ( I don't dare to speculate on the USD/BTC-ratio in July )Please correct me if I'm wrong somewhere, thanks in advance. Also @ the spoondoolies-fans: Do you know for how many dollars 1GH of SP30 chips is going to be produced?
I didn't double-check your calculations but it seems to be a sound analysis! Well done!
- I even do think it may be possible for the May batch to be sold for $0.4. Paying for the June batch with a third of the revenue still seems to be possible in your calculation (we may be short $1m or $2m, but effectively this works).
- You are right that we don't know about the BTC price in July, but it probably won't go down right now and thus will be cutting dividends. I doubt that we can sell chips at a significantly higher price then, though - given a steady BTC price increase and ramping up of competitors.
- Everyone may now try and extrapolate from there how many months we are able to continue this cycle while the price we are able to sell the chips approaches the fabrication price. (remember AM is said to have a 30PH/s/month capacity in creating wafers https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg6914171#msg6914171)
A neat calculation!